Tom Homan — Border Czar (1 trade idea)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 12, 2026
GEO /CXW
LONG Homan confirms the "success" of the Minnesota operation and highlights "unprecedented coordination" with state and local officials. While the specific Minnesota operation is winding down ("drawdown"), the explicit validation of this enforcement model suggests it will be replicated in other jurisdictions. A proven, coordinated strategy increases the likelihood of sustained federal contracts for detention and processing infrastructure nationwide, rather than ad-hoc, chaotic surges. The "success" signals political capital to continue funding these private contractors. LONG. The administration is refining its enforcement machine, ensuring long-term demand for private prison REITs. The "drawdown" could be interpreted as a reduction in total enforcement volume if not immediately redeployed to other regions, temporarily hurting occupancy rates. Bloomberg Markets
Trump Ends Immigration Surge in Minnesota, Bo...